New figures from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) have revealed a decline in UK export activity to the Middle East as the conflict continues.
According to the BCC, certificates of origin issued for Arab markets fell by 20 per cent between March 2025 and March 2026.
These certificates are a customs document required for exporting goods and they are a clear indicator of trade activity.
UK export certificates have also dropped by 10 per cent during the same period and showing us just how much disruption is growing across international trade routes.
Many businesses trading internationally will see these delays and rising costs put pressure on their supply chains and profitability.
They may also be feeling unsure about how they can actually to protect their margins from trade uncertainty.
Why is the conflict affecting trade?
The Middle East is at the centre of several global trade routes, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
When there is disruption in these areas, it quickly has a knock-on effect on international shipping and air freight movement worldwide.
The BCC says the decline in export activity suggests shipments are being delayed, rerouted or cancelled altogether.
They also explained that shipping companies are diverting vessels from high-risk areas and this is increasing transit times and fuel costs.
Air freight routes have also been affected and some flights have been cancelled or redirected due to safety concerns.
Additionally, businesses are facing oil prices rise and this is increasing transportation and manufacturing costs.
Businesses operating on tight margins will feel the blow of these disruptions and it can cause serious financial strain.
How can businesses protect their margins?
Businesses cannot control geopolitical events, but they can improve how they respond to them.
Review your cash flow
Cash flow management is crucial during uncertain trading conditions.
Businesses should regularly stress-test forecasts against different scenarios, including rising costs, delayed customer payments, reduced demand and supply chain disruption.
You should also assess your margins and build a cash reserve as a safety net for moments when trading activity falls.
Asses cost structures
Businesses with fixed cost structures often struggle most during periods of uncertainty.
You should be reviewing overheads and supplier agreements regularly and this can help improve your flexibility if conditions change quickly.
Diversify supply chains
Relying too heavily on one supplier, region or customer base is making your business vulnerable.
Businesses should be looking for alternative suppliers or revenue streams to reduce them being at a greater risk of disruption.
Review pricing
The currency fluctuations and rising import costs can erode your profitability over time.
Smaller, more regular pricing reviews are often easier for customers to take on than sudden large increases.
How can we help during uncertain times?
Having to face periods of uncertainty reminds businesses just how important accurate financial information is to manage the pressures and plan ahead.
Our professional team can help your business model the financial impact of rising costs, improve cash flow forecasting and review your profitability.
We can also spot any potential financial risks within your supply chains and support your financial planning to protect margins during this conflict.
Let us help add some clarity back in your business and support your decision-making during these tough times.
For further advice or support, get in touch.